Energy Demand
Turkey has been experiencing rapid growth in demand in all segments of the energy sector for decades. Over the period 1990-2006, Turkey’s Energy Consumption for Primary Energy and Electricity, in parallel with the population and GDP growth, has increased at an annual rate of 3.7 % and 7.2% respectively. As a result of the continued growing trend in 2007, industrial sector and electricity sector primary energy consumption is expected to increase by 4 percent and 15 percent, respectively, compared to previous year, thereby leading to a 7 percent increase in total primary energy consumption with respect to 2006. Recent forecast of MENR indicates that this trend will prevail in the forthcoming decades.
Final Energy Consumption
The primary energy consumption of Turkey which reached around 99.6 million toe in 2006, is projected to rise to 106.3 toe in 2007, 126 million toe in 2010 and 222 million toe in 2020 according to the high scenario which is adopted as reference by MENR for next years. Per capita energy consumption of oil equivalent (kgoe) in 2006 as 1,377 kilograms would rise to 1,455 kgoe in 2007.
Turkey imported 73 % of its total energy requirements with a diversified portfolio of imports in 2006, net petroleum and petrol product imports constituted 30.3 mtoe, natural gas 27.8 mtoe (30.5 mtoe in 2007 ) and coal 15.1 toe in this import. The cost of energy import including natural gas, coal and electricity amounted to 29 billion dollars in 2006 that represented 34 % of export income. However electricity import and export have not important amounts and shares.
Demand per sector
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, Turkey, 2009
Final Energy Demand of the Residential Sector of Turkey, 2009
Final Energy Demand of the Residential Sector of Turkey, as compared to that of other CEE countries, Austria, and the EU 15, 2008
Demand per Capita
Primary Energy Intensity in MJ per GDP at Purchase Power Parity in Turkey, as compared to other CEE countries, Austria, and the EU 15, 2008
Source: ENERDATA s.a. - WORLD ENERGY DATABASE [2011]
Primary energy intensity is an indicator to show how much energy is needed to produce one quantity of economic output. With 0.7 koe/$95p (33 MJ/$95p), the energy intensity of the GDP has increased since 1991 and remains at a very high level compared to Western European countries.
Demand of electricity per GDP (MWh/M$05) and capita (kWh/hab) for Turkey, other CEEC, Austria, and the EU 15, 2008
Source: ENERDATA s.a. - WORLD ENERGY DATABASE [2011]
The deviation of electricity demand per GDP of a country from that of Austria or the EU average indicates, how efficiently electricity is utilised in the respective economy in comparison to the EU or to Austria, or, conversely, which gains in efficiency are to be realised. If the electricity demand per GDP decreases - what can be expected for the future in CEE countries - more national income in the form of GDP will be produced with the same amount of electricity (the black bars in the figure will decrease in this case).
Energy Demand per Capita
Primary Energy Consumption per capita in koe 1365
Electricity Consumption per capita in kWh Net: 1961
Gross: 293
Source: MENR
Turkey has the lowest energy consumption per capita figures of IEA, with 1.18 toe/capita while OECD, Japan, Germany and Denmark figures are 4.74, 4.15, 4.8 and 4.42 respectively.
Prospects for Energy Saving
In final energy consumption of Turkey, industrial sector has the biggest share with 43% and followed by residential and services sector by 32 %, transport 20 % in 2006. According to the MENR projections, energy consumption share of building sector will decrease gradually to 28 % in 2020.
Turkish industrial sector is energy intensive with its sub-sectors such as iron and steel, non metal and mineral (cement, ceramic and glass) which represent 47 % energy consumption of the sector. However this situation is not unique for Turkey, usually energy intensity increases over time in countries in development.
Similarly, the comparison with dollar base energy intensity (toe/1000US $-with 2000 fixed price) figures of IEA indicates that energy intensity of Turkey is 0.35 for 2005 while the average value of IEA was 0.19 and the lowest was 0.11 which are Denmark and Japan. Also comparison with EU figures (koe/1000€ ), reflects that Turkey’s energy intensity values are substantially higher than EU and IEA averages. It can be interpreted as, 50% energy saving potential is possible for Turkey. On the other hand comparison made with the ppp basis values does not reflect same level of saving potentials, but confirms increasing trend.
Turkey has the lowest energy consumption per capita figures in IEA, with 1.18 toe/capita while OECD, Japan, Germany and Denmark figures are 4.74, 4.15, 4.8 and 4.42 respectively. These figures reveal that Turkey has important energy growth potential in addition to energy efficiency potential. So as to ensure an energy efficient growth trend, a careful planning and an effective demand side program development are necessary in medium and log term.
On the other hand, overall energy intensity development of the country is usually relying on structural changes of the industry of the country. If less energy intensive branches grow faster than other branches, this reduces the overall intensity of industry and overall country energy intensity. As it is shown in Figure 4.3 in EU15, structural change within manufacturing sector has contributed to the energy intensity decrease since 1996.
Therefore in Turkey, industry has the priority in energy efficiency initiatives with regards to the recent and upcoming years’ energy consumption trends and also energy intensity trend of the sector.
Prices
With the exception of oil product prices which were liberalised in 1989, energy prices are still regulated by the government. Since February 2001, all energy products have been subject to 18% VAT (17% from February 2000 to February 2001 and 15% before that).Oil and gas are subject to Special Consumption Tax (OTV). Also various smal taxes and levies are exist on different typs of energy.
Electricity prices are determined by EMRA. The price of electricity for households has almost doubled since 1990. In 2006, the prices were US$10.2 cents/kWh for industry and US$11.3 cents/kWh for households. Electicity price was not increased by GOT in 2006 with the social and economic considerations before the general elections.
Gas prices are determined by EMRA. The average gas price is US$ 0.41/kWh for industry and US$ 0.48/kWh for households.
